Jianhang Cui, Zezhu Wei, Xinlin Li, Chengcheng Yuan, Liming Liu, Dingxiang Zhang
Abstract
The characterization and prediction of carbon emissions and sequestration highlight the urgency of climate action in the Sustainable Development Goals. Land use constitutes the spatial basis for implementing such strategies, providing a critical basis for effective governance. In this study, an integrated modeling framework by coupling the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model was developed. The framework was used to estimate net carbon emissions under various land-use change scenarios. Carbon accounting across 40 cities validated the stability of source coefficients and yielded city-specific land use emission factors. Four policy-driven scenarios—natural development, urban development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection—were designed to evaluate the impacts of land-use strategies on carbon fluxes. These scenarios were applied to Northeast China as a case study. The results indicated that: (1) In Northeast China, carbon emissions primarily originate from the expansion of built-up areas, with each additional square meter generating approximately 39.14 kg of carbon emissions. In contrast, carbon sink zones can absorb around 0.0477 kg of carbon per square meter annually. (2) Among all the scenarios, the ecological protection strategy was most effective in reducing net carbon emissions. (3) Under this scenario, the projected 2030 land use structure comprised 36.37 % cultivated land, 43.06 % forest, 15.48 % grassland, 1.50 % water, 2.74 % built-up area, and 0.85 % bare land. (4) Compared with conventional land use–based carbon accounting approaches, the proposed framework is easier to interpret, transferable across regions, and policy-oriented, providing a practical and adaptable tool for spatial planning and long-term carbon neutrality objectives.
An integrated land use–carbon modeling framework for net carbon emissions and spatial optimization in Northeast China.pdf